William H. Frey
Senior Fellow – Metropolitan Policy Program
In every presidential election since 2004, Americans older than age 45 were the Republican Party’s counterweight to Democratic strength among younger voters. It’s these older voters that kept Republicans competitive in the Electoral College and lead to Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, despite losing the popular vote.
Some see this age imbalance between Democrats and Republicans as inevitable, and even the engine for generating future Democratic wins as older generations age out (see the recent States of Change project report; Ronald Brownstein’s “brown versus gray” voter theory; and my own exposition of the “cultural generation gap”). These prognostications see a continued short-term battle between younger, diverse, and progressive voters who favor Democratic candidates and older voters—whiter and more conservative on social and spending matters—who favor Republicans.
Trump’s embrace of nostalgia, nationalism, and anti-immigrant policies helped him triumph with the older group four years ago, and he is following the same campaign playbook today. Moreover, whites without college degrees (his strongest base) still make up a higher share of older voters than younger voters, both nationally and in key battleground states (Download Table A).
Yet recent polling suggests these older voters—especially seniors age 65 and older—are turning away from Trump, if not Republicans in general. While the long-term impact of their retreat is open to question (since it might be linked to the administration’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic), it is clear that even a modest shift to challenger Joe Biden on Election Day could lead to solid Democratic wins in most of this cycle’s swing states.
This is evident from a series of simulations of 2020 election results that I conducted for 10 battleground states and the nation as a whole. The simulations look at the differences in voting outcomes that would occur if 2020 voters in broad age groups voted as they did in 2016, or if they follow patterns suggested in recent polls conducted by The New York Times and Siena College. Across the simulations, we see waning Republican support from age groups that were once stalwarts of the party.
About the Author
Senior Fellow – Metropolitan Policy Program
In every presidential election since 2004, Americans older than age 45 were the Republ…